A short week ahead with very light volume starting Tuesday can lead to large outsized swings and large profits. We saw part one of this action on Friday. Expect Tuesday’s light volume with wild swings to be followed by Wednesday and Thursday's heavier volume with fewer swings. Friday will be light again and volatile. The $IWM continued to hold its gain from the wedge breakout. $218.18 is solid support now. We look like we will attempt to make another run at the $230 level. $TNA is the 3x ETF you can use to trade this index. The $SPY actually keeps forming a wedge. Based upon the base a break of this level could lead to $450 Target. It will be a slow grind but the possibility is there. The $QQQ tried to break the $337 level and was unable to. This is not surprising. There is a lot of resistance at that level and it will take some time. Also, we might be due for a rest in the leading index, the $SOXX. We are hitting several key levels and it could take some time to work through them. $NVDA and $AMD both look great and could be considered to add on a pullback. The keyword there is pullbacks. I see nothing wrong with Friday’s action. Key levels are marked on the charts.
I need to rant:
Lots of people concerned that stocks went down and not up Friday. Newsflash stocks go down. This is not 2020 where you can buy whatever your next-door neighbor bought nor whatever kid posting living in his Mom’s basement was tweeting. This is an actual market with volatility. Stocks go down. Be prepared. Analyze your risk. Sell when you can. Buy when they dip. If you make 20% in a stock and you are not willing to break even on it. Sell a portion. Have an actual game plan and treat this like a business. I have said this many times. You are playing against the most disciplined and smartest people in the world. Act like it. No one owes you anything. The market is not going to go up simply because you own it. Revenues matter, Earnings matter, and sustainable business matter. I do not know who needs to hear this but Wall street will sell us whatever junk we are willing to buy. $COIN is down 45% in a month from its debut. It was heralded on CNBC as a great success. For who? The founders that sold their stock to retail $BTC is down 47% from its high. Look at the volume in the 60K level. It is massive. Who do you think sold? Hint: It wasn’t retail. What’s going to save it? Bitcoin pizza day? My point is this if you do not have a plan. A plan will be created for you. It will be wall street taking your money and you complaining that the “market moved against you.”
Instead, I can offer a simple alternative. Consider the following do not enter any new positions without first establishing: entry price, stop loss, complete exit strategy. On any existing positions: Stop loss, complete exit strategy. You have one advantage of large pools of capital. You can be nimble. They can not.
“Be water. My Friend”- Bruce Lee
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As always all investment decisions need to be made by the individual. We all have different risk profiles.No two people trade the same. Understand the buy points, stop losses, trims are suggestions. For example on stops. I want to see it close there at the end of the day.
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