Yesterday the indexes dropped more in one day than we have in 6 months. The last time we came in this hard was the end of march. Our key issue is where we are on the charts. We are below the 50 day moving average on all three major indexes. We have not been in this position since Nov 2020. That correction lasted over two weeks. It is very important as an investor you have a top down approach. A top down approach is as follows: Index , Sector ,Stock. You should be checking all three consistently. you can be in a bad stock idea in a good index and sector and still do alright. You can not be in a good stock with the Index and Sector being bad. Its just not possible. Don’t get me wrong there will be short term trades and outliners. However , this is not the way to truly be consistently profitable and that is what we all want.
Today the Nasdaq kept bouncing off the $360 level and at one point looked like it might reverse higher. Instead we closed below the previous days low , the major trend line and the $360 support. Usually during corrections the Nasdaq leads. The SPY is forming an h pattern and looks bearish. The benefit of the SPY is that there are 9 major sectors so usually there is a rotation into one of the sector that keep the index drops muted. yesterday All 9 sectors were red. Today 8 were green but only made mild gains back. The strongest sector is Energy. Getting over $434 tomorrow would be a start. The IWM has been basing for close to a tear and we are right near the 200 day moving average. Its good that the averages caught up. That said if we break $219 the selling could accelerate.
The game plan is simple. Use tight stops and be picky. Let this sort itself out. Look how the market rebounded after last Nov. The SPY and QQQ were both up 13% in two months. You want to have cash when things are cheap.
Here are some questions I gave during one of the community’s Saturday educational workshops. Each trader should ask themselves each day. This is a great time to start implementing them.
What is the maximal loss in my portfolio I will tolerate today?
Where are my stop losses on ALL my positions?
What is my exit strategy to lock in profit on ALL positions?
What stocks do I want to own and where are the entries?
Doing this will put you ahead of over 50% of the investors out there.
Remember. Stocks take the stairs up and the window down. Act accordingly. There will be tons of great opportunities when the this settles.
Let’s look at our Indexes !
Let’s look at our Stocks !
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