📈 Chasing Alpha Weekly
What you need to know before you trade this week.
Chasing Alpha Weekly drops every Sunday. I break down the macro signals, sector rotations, and specific trade setups I’m watching for the week ahead. If you’re new here — subscribe below so you don’t miss it.
$SPY hit another all-time high last week. $DELL erupted 32% in a single session. $MU got a $1,600 price target slapped on it. And the loudest voices on financial Twitter spent the week saying bubble.
They’re looking at the wrong things.
This week I want to walk you through why the fundamental case for this market is stronger than most people understand, where the rotation is going next, and the one thing — the only thing — that is genuinely on my radar as a concern. Let’s get into it.
What Happened Last Week
↑ Winners
$SPY hits another all-time high
$DELL up 32% in a session — one of the biggest beats of the entire AI cycle
$ARM ripping — Nvidia CPU partnership still not fully priced in
$IGV and $CIBR quietly rotating higher — software and cyber lifting together
→ Watch
Breadth sold off slightly on Friday on the 5 and 20-day — positioning ahead of June, not distribution
Computex 2026 next week — Nvidia’s cryptic coordinates point to a major CPU or AI announcement
NYSE margin debt approaching levels worth monitoring on a monthly basis
↓ Laggards
Nothing material breaking down — the market is rotating, not distributing
The macro is getting clearer. The fundamentals are the strongest I’ve seen in 25 years. The technicals are confirming both.
This Is Not a Bubble. Here’s Why.
Before we get into setups I want to address the thing I keep hearing — because it’s costing people money.
Everyone is calling this a bubble. They’re pointing at charts that look extended, valuations that look stretched, and price targets that look absurd. And they’re wrong. Here’s why.
During the dot-com bubble, we invented new metrics because there were no earnings. Eyeballs. Website visits. We were funding companies with retail money and debt, and there was nothing underneath. When the music stopped, there was nothing to fall back on.
That is not what is happening here.
$SNDK was supposed to earn $14 last quarter. They earned $23. They guided next quarter to $33-35. $DELL beat EPS by 50% and raised their AI server revenue outlook from $50 billion to $60 billion — adding the equivalent of an entire extra quarter of earnings to their fiscal year in a single guidance revision.
The investment banks just put a $1,600 price target on $MU. And they’re saying it should trade at 15x earnings — a discount to the S&P at 21x — even with this growth rate. That is not bubble talk. That is a mispriced asset getting corrected.
When people say these charts look parabolic, I want to show them what parabolic actually looks like. Parabolic is a company with no earnings, no revenue, and a story. That is not $DELL. That is not $MU. That is not $ARM.
The fundamentals of this market are probably the strongest on the earnings beat and earnings growth side that I have seen in 25 years of trading. Until the earnings slow, the thesis does not change.
The one thing that could change it — and the one thing I am genuinely watching — I’ll get to at the end.
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The 5 Setups I’m Watching This Week
📌 $DELL — This Is Their Nvidia Moment
EPS beat by 50% — $17.31 versus $11.63 expected
AI server revenue guidance raised from $50B to $60B
$27B added to the fiscal year outlook — the equivalent of an entire extra quarter in earnings
This was telegraphed by Lenovo last week. The hardware cycle is not over — it’s broadening. This is their Nvidia 2023 moment and most people are going to realize it after the fact.
📌 $MU / $SNDK — The Rerating Is Just Getting Started
$SNDK earned $23 when estimates were $14 — next quarter guided $33-35
$MU now has long-term agreements providing a steady income base — this is not the cyclical $MU of 10 years ago
Investment banks rerated to 15x earnings — still a discount to the broader market
People keep waiting for this trade to be over. The earnings keep accelerating. I’m still long and the thesis hasn’t changed.
📌 $ARM — The Nvidia Partnership Is Not Priced In
$NVDA said CPU dozens of times on their conference call — $ARM is their CPU architecture partner
$NVDA pulling forward their CPU launch by a full quarter — accelerating $ARM revenue timeline
Computex 2026 next week — watch for a joint announcement that re-rates this relationship
The valuation argument misses the point entirely. The question is not what $ARM earns today. The question is what $ARM earns when Nvidia’s distribution model is behind their architecture in every major CPU deployment. Watch Computex closely.
📌 $IGV / $CIBR — The Rotation Is Already Happening
$IGV positive divergence forming on the weekly — institutions rotating into software as semis consolidate
$CIBR at all-time highs — AI scale requires more cyber security, not less
$CRWD and $PANW reporting Tuesday — institutions are already positioned ahead of these
Semis may need a rest. The money doesn’t disappear — it rotates. Software is relatively cheap. Cyber is breaking out. This is where I’m looking for the next entries.
📌 $HPE — The Sleeper Into Monday Earnings
Juniper Networks acquisition growing 135% year-over-year — now a third of total revenues
Breaking out of a year-long base — almost nobody is covering this
Lenovo and Dell already gave you the hardware infrastructure read-through
This is the under-the-radar name that the hardware broadening trade points to. Reports Monday. I’ve been in this since mid-April and I’m not moving.
What I’m Watching This Week
$HPE Earnings — Monday
Juniper growth rate is the number. If it holds at 135%+ the stock re-rates.
$CRWD / $PANW Earnings — Tuesday
Cyber security hitting all-time highs into earnings. Watch how much is priced in on the open.
Computex — Tuesday - Friday
Nvidia’s cryptic coordinates point to something significant on the CPU or AI infrastructure side. $ARM and $INTC both worth watching into the event.
NYSE Margin Debt
Updated monthly. If month-over-month growth continues accelerating toward prior cycle peak levels, this becomes the primary risk to watch. Not there yet — but worth monitoring closely.
The One Thing I’m Actually Concerned About
I want to be straight with you because I think it’s important.
Everything I’ve covered above is constructive. The earnings are historic. The institutional buying at the last hour is relentless — and we’re not even at 5-year cumulative highs yet. Smart money and dumb money are both holding steady. Retail is not puking. Institutions are not rushing for the exits.
But there is one thing I’m watching.
NYSE margin debt as a percentage of growth is approaching levels that have historically preceded the largest corrections of the past 40 years. Dot-com peaked around 75 on this measure. The great financial crisis peaked in a similar range. We are not there. But the month-over-month growth rate is accelerating.
This does not mean it crashes tomorrow. It can stay elevated for months. The growth rate can slow without a crisis. But when someone asks me what the one bear case signal is that I’m monitoring — this is it.
I’m not changing my positioning based on it today. But I’m watching it every month. And so should you.
The Bottom Line
The fundamentals are the strongest I’ve seen in a quarter century of trading. The rotation from semis into software and cyber is already underway. The hardware cycle is broadening into $DELL, $HPE, and the infrastructure layer. And institutions are buying into the close every single day.
The bubble crowd is looking at charts and ignoring earnings. Don’t make that mistake.
Watch Computex. Watch $HPE on Monday. Watch $CRWD and $PANW on Tuesday. And keep one eye on margin debt — not because it’s a problem today, but because it’s the one metric that would tell you when this cycle is getting long in the tooth.
The full breakdown — including the last hour institutional data, the margin debt analysis, and the live $ARM trade walkthrough — is on YouTube now.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Thank you for the interesting margin research! Additionally there is huge leverage in CapEx and weird financial constructions for the AI buildout - smells a bit trouble if we go too fast too high