📈 Chasing Alpha Weekly
Three things happened this week that nobody is talking about...
📈 Chasing Alpha Weekly — July 12
We finally got the higher high. But three things happened this week that nobody is talking about — and one of them could be the biggest catalyst of the year.
Chasing Alpha Weekly drops every Sunday. I break down the macro signals, sector rotations, and specific trade setups I’m watching for the week ahead. If you’re new here — subscribe below so you don’t miss it.
We got the higher high everyone was waiting for. $SPY broke the downtrend line. Breadth is broadening. The bond market isn’t scared.
And buried underneath all the noise about SpaceX and semiconductor carnage, three things happened this week that most traders completely missed — including what might be the single biggest catalyst of the year.
Let’s get into it.
What Happened Last Week
↑ Winners
$SPY breaks the DTL — higher high confirmed, breadth broadening out across the market
$NVDA prints a white marubozu on Friday — open was the low, close was the high on institutional volume
China announces certain AI companies can now buy high-end chips — buried under everything else
$HYG hitting new highs — credit markets are not pricing in a crash
$BKLN (private credit lines) hitting new highs — same story
→ Watch
$SOXX forming a head and shoulders — holding the neckline and 61.8% fib retracement for now
COR1M options dispersion at extreme levels not seen since August 2024 — yen carry trade risk worth monitoring
ATR collapsing across major semi names — period of consolidation, not distribution
↓ Laggards
$SPCX still below IPO VWAP — space names in full carnage mode
Swing trades getting chopped up — trendless environment making it extremely difficult
$SKHY premium over $MU normalized — rotation back into $MU and $SNDK underway
The higher high is confirmed. Under the surface, three developments changed the picture entirely.
The Three Things Nobody Is Talking About
Let me walk through each one carefully because I think they matter significantly for how you position heading into this week.
1. China Chips — The Biggest Catalyst of the Year
This got completely buried under the SpaceX narrative and the semiconductor head and shoulders hand-wringing. But I think it’s the most important thing that happened all week.
China announced that certain AI companies will be allowed to purchase high-end chips. One line in the news cycle. Almost nobody picked it up.
Here is why it matters enormously: there is zero China revenue currently baked into $NVDA’s earnings or guidance. Not a dollar. If China opens up as a meaningful market for high-end AI chips, Nvidia has to take numbers up — significantly. The street has not priced any of this in.
And then look at what $NVDA did on Friday — a white marubozu pattern. The open was the low. The close was the high. On a Friday, when institutions are making their final positioning decisions for the week. That is not a coincidence.
This is the most underappreciated catalyst in the market right now. Zero China revenue in current estimates. One policy change could change that entirely.
2. The Bond Market Is Not Scared
While everyone was focused on the $SOXX head and shoulders and debating whether semiconductors are done, the bond market was telling a completely different story.
$HYG is hitting new highs. $BKLN — private credit lines — is hitting new highs. Investment grade is going nowhere.
Here is the framework for reading this: when institutions are genuinely scared about the market, they dump high yield and pile into investment grade. They want safety over yield. The exact opposite is happening right now. They are buying the riskiest bonds aggressively — which tells you they are not concerned about credit.
This does not end with $HYG at new highs. Markets do not crash when the riskiest part of the credit market is making new highs. The bond market is telling you something very different from what financial Twitter is saying.
When people are truly worried, they don’t buy high yield. Right now they’re buying it aggressively. That’s the signal.
3. The Yen Carry Trade — The One Risk Worth Monitoring
Nobody is talking about this. And it’s the one thing I’d actually put on your radar as a potential black swan.
COR1M measures options dispersion between the top 50 $SPX stocks. Right now it’s at extreme levels not seen since August 2024. And August 2024 is exactly when the yen carry trade unwind clobbered the market.
The yen carry trade works like this: institutions borrow money cheaply in Japan, convert it to dollars, and buy US equities. When the yen strengthens sharply, those trades unwind fast — and they unwind all at the same time.
My belief is that people who got hurt in August 2024 are probably less levered now. But I don’t know that for certain. And when something sends the market down hard and nobody is expecting it, that’s exactly how these things work.
Put an alert on USD/JPY. Watch it. If the yen strengthens sharply, this is the mechanism that could create a fast, ugly move lower.
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The 5 Setups I’m Watching This Week
📌 $NVDA — China Is the Catalyst Nobody Has Priced In
White marubozu printed on Friday — institutions buying into the close on massive volume
Zero China revenue in current estimates — any policy clarity sends numbers dramatically higher
$NVDA speeding up CPU launch, partnering with $ARM — multiple tailwinds converging
This is a setup I feel strongly about heading into this week. If China chip policy gets any further clarification, $NVDA has to be rerated. The street is completely unprepared for this.
📌 $MU / $SNDK — Consolidation, Not Collapse
$SOXX holding its neckline and the 61.8% fib retracement of the entire breakout move
ATR collapsing across semi names — trendless consolidation, not distribution
$SKHY premium over $MU normalized — rotation back into domestic DRAM names underway
When $SKHY went public it was cheaper than $MU on a trailing PE basis. Once it ran 20%, that premium flipped. Institutions rotated back into $MU and $SNDK on valuation. That is not carnage — that is a rational rebalance. Watch DRAM pricing for the real signal.
📌 $HYG / $BKLN — The Bond Market Confirms the Thesis
$HYG hitting new highs — institutions choosing yield over safety
$BKLN at new highs — private credit market not pricing in stress
High yield vs investment grade ratio still trending in favor of risk — same signal that marked the March 2026 bottom
You don’t buy high yield aggressively when you think the market is rolling over. The credit market is the smartest money in the room. Right now it’s telling you to stay long risk assets.
📌 Short $SPCX / Space Names — IPO VWAP Broken, No Recovery
$SPCX broke its IPO VWAP and has not recovered — this is the pattern that plays out across virtually every IPO that loses its VWAP
Space ETFs ($UFO, $NASA) still repositioning — selling pressure in $RKLB, $ASTS not necessarily done
Insider selling in $RKLB accelerating — executives can’t get out fast enough
The SpaceX IPO playbook is identical to Rivian, Coinbase, and every other high-profile IPO that broke its VWAP on day one. Until $SPCX reclaims $135, the path of least resistance is lower — and it takes the space complex with it.
📌 Watch USD/JPY — The COR1M Signal
COR1M at extreme levels not seen since August 2024
August 2024 was the yen carry trade unwind that clobbered the market without warning
Less leverage in the system now — but the mechanism still exists
This is not a high-probability event. But it is the one thing I would put on your radar as a potential fast-moving black swan. Set an alert on USD/JPY. If the yen strengthens sharply and quickly, get defensive immediately.
What I’m Watching This Week
China Chip Policy
Any further clarification on which companies and which chips sends $NVDA significantly higher. Zero in current estimates means the upside is uncapped if this develops.
$SOXX Neckline
The head and shoulders neckline is holding. If it breaks, the next meaningful support is the 55-day at roughly 518-520. If it holds, consolidation continues and leaders emerge.
USD/JPY
The COR1M signal is worth respecting. Not predicting a crash — just monitoring the one mechanism that could create a fast disorderly move.
DRAM Pricing
This is still the only leading indicator that actually matters for the semiconductor thesis. SK Hynix signed contracts with no price caps. Pricing is still going up. When it turns, you’ll see it here first.
The Bottom Line
The higher high is confirmed. Breadth is broadening. The bond market is buying high yield aggressively — not running for safety. And China just opened a door for $NVDA revenue that has exactly zero dollars priced into current estimates.
Three things happened this week that got buried under the noise — a China chip policy change that could be the biggest catalyst of the year, a bond market that is clearly not scared, and a yen carry trade signal worth putting on your radar.
Most people are watching the $SOXX head and shoulders and debating whether semiconductors are done. The bond market, the credit market, and a white marubozu on $NVDA on a Friday are all telling you something different.
Do the work. Watch the right signals. And put a USD/JPY alert on your screen this week.
The full breakdown — including the COR1M yen carry trade analysis, the $SPCX vs $SKHY comparative deep dive, and the complete China chip catalyst walkthrough — is on YouTube now.