đ Chasing Alpha Weekly
Everyone's calling the top. They're wrong.
Chasing Alpha Weekly drops every Sunday. I break down the macro signals, sector rotations, and specific trade setups Iâm watching for the week ahead. If youâre new here â subscribe below so you donât miss it.
Semiconductors are up 84% off the March base. And the most common thing I keep hearing is âthis canât possibly continue.â
Nobody who says that can actually explain why.
This week I want to walk you through why the semiconductor move is nothing like dot-com, why industrials breaking out is one of the most important signals in this market right now, and what actually happened with the $STRC selloff that most of social media got completely wrong. Letâs get into it.
What Happened Last Week
â Winners
$SPY and $NDX rally hard on world peace headlines â gap up, fill, rip higher
New Fed chair delivers a shorter, simpler statement â no dot plot, no forward guidance
Crude oil collapses 35% from its peak â jets, cruise lines, and industrials all benefiting
$CAT and $GEV quietly breaking out to new highs
â Watch
Breadth is short-term oversold â most oversold on the 5-day moving average since April
$SPCX (SpaceX) trapped between $170-190 â watch the IPO VWAP closely
STRC sells off hard on social media âPonzi schemeâ panic â the real story is very different
â Laggards
Energy sector breaking down â $XLE forming a head and shoulders right on the neckline
Gold rolling over hard as the safe-haven trade unwinds
$MSTX â structurally broken versus $MSTR, still short
The macro is shifting fast. A major rotation is happening underneath the index level â and most people are missing it because theyâre focused on the wrong sector.
Why âIt Canât Continueâ Isnât an Argument
I want to spend time on this because I think itâs costing people real money.
Semiconductors are up 84% from the March low. Every week I hear the same thing: this canât continue, it has to come down, itâs too extended. Hereâs my question back to anyone who says that: what, specifically, is going to change?
Look at $SNDKâs earnings trajectory over the past several quarters: $0.36, then $6.20, then $23. That is not a story about hype. That is a story about a company whose earnings power has fundamentally changed. In 20-plus years of trading, I have never seen semiconductor earnings growth move this fast.
People keep comparing this to dot-com. It is nothing like dot-com.
During dot-com, companies traded at 80-90 times future earnings because we invented new metrics â eyeballs, website visits â to justify valuations with no revenue behind them. What you have right now is the opposite: earnings growing faster than the stock prices, multiple times in a row, quarter after quarter.
If earnings keep rising and keep rising faster than people expect, the index keeps going higher. Itâs not a mystery. Itâs not some secret. Until earnings actually slow down, this doesnât stop.
The driving force here has a name. Itâs earnings. Until that changes, âit canât continueâ is not a thesis â itâs a feeling.
Enjoying this so far? Chasing Alpha Weekly goes out every Sunday. Subscribe below so you never miss a week.
The Rotation Most People Are Missing
While everyone is watching semis, thereâs a second story developing that I think matters just as much heading into this week.
Crude oil has collapsed 35% from its peak. Gas prices are down roughly 22% from their peak average. That has direct, immediate consequences across multiple sectors that almost nobody is talking about.
Airlines. Oil is the single biggest cost for any airline. When oil drops this much, profit margins expand immediately. $JETS still hasnât even recovered to pandemic-era levels â it is massively depressed relative to the rest of the market, which makes it one of the more interesting low-beta setups out there right now.
Cruise lines. $CCL, $RCL, and even the laggard $NCLH are all starting to shape up technically at the same time the macro tailwind is forming. Lower gas prices mean more disposable income heading into peak summer travel season.
Industrials. This is the one I think matters most. $CAT just completed a textbook breakout, retest, and quiet break to new highs on Friday. $GEV showed an exhaustive selling bar, held its 55-day, and is now confirming the reversal with less volume on each retest.
Industrials do not hit new highs heading into a recession. When you see this kind of broad participation outside of just semis, that tells you the market is pricing in something very different from the doom narrative still floating around financial media.
The 5 Setups Iâm Watching This Week
đ $SOXX â Up 84% and Still the Trade
Semiconductor earnings growth has never moved this fast in over 20 years of trading
$SNDKâs earnings trajectory â $0.36 to $6.20 to $23 â tells you this is structural, not speculative
Nothing here resembles dot-com valuations â this is earnings-driven, not narrative-driven
People keep calling the top. Nobody can explain what specifically changes that thesis. Until earnings slow, Iâm not fighting this trend.
đ $JETS â The Cleanest Way to Play the Oil Collapse
Crude down 35% from its peak, gas down 22% from peak average pricing
Oil is the single largest cost for airlines â lower oil drops straight to the bottom line
Still has not recovered to pandemic-era levels, massively depressed relative to the broader market
This is about as low-beta and straightforward a setup as exists in this market right now. The macro tailwind is direct and the technical setup is just starting to confirm.
đ $CAT / $GEV â Industrials Confirming the Broader Market
$CAT completed a textbook breakout, retest, and quiet new high on Friday
$GEV showed exhaustive selling, held its 55-day, and confirmed the reversal on lighter volume
Data center buildout remains on fire globally despite cancellation headlines getting all the attention
When industrials break out alongside semis, that is broad-based confirmation, not a single-sector story. I added to $GEV on the reversal setup and Iâm watching $CAT for continuation.
đ $CCL / $RCL / $NCLH â Leisure and Travel Rotation
$PEJ (leisure and entertainment) is shaping up across the board
$NCLH, the laggard of the group, is bouncing off the bottom
Lower gas prices translate directly into more consumer disposable income heading into summer
When multiple correlated sectors confirm the same macro thesis simultaneously, that is not a coincidence. Watch for the group to keep rotating higher together.
đ $STRC / Short $MSTX â The Most Misunderstood Trade of the Week
STRC sold off hard on social media âPonzi schemeâ panic â the actual structure tells a very different story
They cannot issue new shares below par, and theyâre increasing payment frequency, not cutting it â the opposite of distress
DE Shaw, BlackRock, and Millennium all materially increased their STRC positions this quarter
Short sellers are now paying roughly 13% annualized to stay short â this was a leveraged margin call, not a structural collapse
Scams do not pay you more often. They miss payments. Iâm long STRC with downside protection and remain short $MSTX, where the structural spread to mimic $MSTR makes the math difficult to justify.
What Iâm Watching This Week
$SPCX IPO VWAP
Trapped between $170 and $190. A break above $190 likely targets $200. A break below $170 means defense mode.
Industrials & Data Centers
Watch for further broadening beyond $CAT and $GEV. This rotation is still early.
$XLE / $GUSH
Head and shoulders confirmed on the neckline. $GUSH looks like one of the cleanest shorts in the energy complex right now.
Fed Chair Communication Style
Shorter statements, no dot plot, no forward guidance. This likely means more day-to-day market volatility â which, frankly, creates more opportunity for traders who understand the new framework.
The Bottom Line
Semiconductors are up 84% and people are still calling the top without being able to explain what changes the earnings trajectory. Industrials are breaking out into whatâs supposed to be a recession. Oil is collapsing and confirming disinflation across every commercial hedger signal that actually matters.
The people getting this wrong are the ones reacting to headlines and TikTok videos instead of doing the work. The STRC situation this week was a perfect example â a leveraged margin call got mistaken for a Ponzi scheme because nobody bothered to check whether the issuer was actually missing payments.
Do the work. Understand the why behind every move. That is the only way youâll actually know when any of this ends â instead of guessing and getting run over by a trend that has earnings squarely behind it.
The full breakdown â including the new Fed chair changes in detail, the SpaceX IPO technical levels, and the complete STRC/MSTX trade walkthrough â is on YouTube now.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research.