📈 Chasing Alpha Weekly
SpaceX went public. Here's who wins, who loses, and where the real money is going.
Chasing Alpha Weekly drops every Sunday. I break down the macro signals, sector rotations, and specific trade setups I’m watching for the week ahead. If you’re new here — subscribe below so you don’t miss it.
The biggest IPO in history just happened. $SPCX opened, ripped 30%, and became the sixth most valuable company in the US in a single session.
And while everyone was watching the rocket ship, semiconductors quietly had one of their best days of the year.
This week I want to walk you through what the $SPCX listing actually means for how you position yourself — who benefits, who is structurally short, and why the trade that everyone forgot about is still the most important one in the market. Let’s get into it.
What Happened Last Week
↑ Winners
$SPCX lists and closes up 30% on day one — sixth most valuable US company
$TSLA rips on Tesla/SpaceX merger speculation — held its 55-day on massive volume
Semiconductors bought aggressively the moment $SPCX listing was behind us
Breadth hitting higher highs — 71% of $SPY names now above their 20-day moving average
$LRCX and $AMAT hitting highs — nobody talking about it
→ Watch
$SPCX IPO VWAP — the line that tells you everything about whether this holds
$TSLA downtrend line — break above it confirms the merger trade is real
$MU earnings June 24 — Goldman flagged concern, but $40B in long-term agreements already locked
↓ Laggards
$UFO, $NASA, $RKLB, $ASTS imploding — space ETFs selling everything to make room for $SPCX
$DXYZ, $VCX — private company wrapper premiums collapsing now that $SPCX trades publicly
$IGV — the software rally that everybody got excited about has quietly fallen apart again
The $SPCX IPO created chaos. But underneath it, the market is telling you exactly where the money is going.
The SpaceX IPO — What the Tape Is Actually Saying
Let me separate the hype from what the chart and the mechanics are actually telling us.
$SPCX priced at $135. It traded as low as $135 intraday — which means the IPO VWAP is right at that level. That number matters more than anything else right now. Here is why.
When Facebook went public, it was a disaster. It broke its IPO VWAP almost immediately and then spent over a year rejecting off that level every time it tried to recover. When it finally reclaimed it and held — that was the beginning of one of the greatest runs in market history.
Rivian told the opposite story. Broke the IPO VWAP early and never came back.
The IPO VWAP is the only technical level that matters right now for $SPCX. If the daily starts closing below $135, you want to be defensive. If it holds and the daily closes above it, the bid is real.
Only 4% of this company is currently trading. Employees and early investors hold the other 96%. In November, 60% becomes available for sale. That is the real overhang — and it is months away. For now, the float is so thin that the price action is not telling you much about true institutional demand. What it is telling you is that retail wants in — and the mechanisms forcing index inclusion are going to add support whether institutions want it or not.
The most important thing you can do with $SPCX right now is watch the IPO VWAP. Everything else is noise.
The Tesla Merger Trade Is More Real Than People Think
Here is the trade that most people are missing entirely.
After the $SPCX listing, SpaceX’s COO made comments about “tons of synergies” between Tesla and SpaceX. The market heard it — $TSLA ripped immediately after those comments and held its 55-day moving average on the highest volume in over a month.
Musk has a very clear history here. He merged Solar City into Tesla. He folded X into XAI. He bought XAI into SpaceX. The pattern is consistent — he combines companies to share costs, infrastructure, and the AI layer across all of them.
If Tesla and SpaceX merge, $TSLA becomes part of the largest company in the US stock market. And right now, on a valuation basis, $TSLA is the cheaper way into $SPCX.
The weekly chart tells a compelling technical story too. You have a cup forming from December 2024 through the April lows, a handle developing at the $380 put wall level, and a measured move target near $670 on a clean breakout. That does not happen on a random Tuesday — but the setup is there and it is worth watching closely.
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The 5 Setups I’m Watching This Week
📌 $TSLA — The Cheap Way Into SpaceX
COO flagged Tesla/SpaceX synergies — merger speculation is now openly on the table
Held 55-day moving average on massive volume Friday — institutional support confirmed
Cup and handle forming on the weekly — measured move target near $670
Musk has done this before with every company he runs. The synergies are real — shared fabrication facilities, shared AI infrastructure, shared cost base. I have a position. I’m watching the downtrend line for the breakout confirmation.
📌 $SNDK / $MU — The Cycle Is Not Over
$SNDK went from earning roughly $1 a quarter to $23 a quarter in three quarters — this is not the same company
$MU has $40 billion in long-term agreements already locked for the next two years
Semiconductor earnings raised 17% across the board in a single quarter — that has never happened, including during dot-com
People keep saying they missed it. The earnings keep accelerating faster than the stock prices are moving. That is not a bubble. That is a mispriced asset still being corrected.
📌 $LRCX / $AMAT — Semicap Names Signal the Beginning, Not the End
$LRCX gets 39% of revenue from NAND — hitting highs on Friday with nobody talking about it
$AMAT hitting highs alongside it
Semicap equipment names move at the START of semiconductor cycles, not the end
When the companies that build the machines that make the chips start breaking out, that tells you the buildout is accelerating — not ending. This is one of the most important signals in the market right now and almost nobody is discussing it.
📌 Short $DXYZ / $VCX — The Premium Is Structurally Gone
$VCX NAV is approximately $18 — trading near $130. That is not a valuation argument, that is math
$DXYZ premium existed because retail couldn’t buy $SPCX publicly — that reason no longer exists
As Anthropic, Databricks, and OpenAI go public, every private holding in these wrappers gets a real mark
When you can buy the underlying asset directly in the open market, there is zero reason to pay a 30-50% premium for a wrapper. The catalyst for the premium to collapse just arrived. These are structural shorts.
📌 $RKLB / $ASTS — The Selling Is Not Done
$UFO and $NASA failed to raise cash before the IPO — they are selling existing holdings NOW to make room for $SPCX
Both names trade at a significant revenue premium to $SPCX — that math does not hold
The mechanism is self-reinforcing — funds sell to rebalance, traders short, retail follows
Space ETFs cannot call themselves space funds without owning the sixth largest company in America. They didn’t prepare. Now they’re selling everything else to buy it. This resolves when the rebalancing is complete — we are not there yet.
What I’m Watching This Week
$SPCX IPO VWAP — $135
If the daily closes below this level, get defensive immediately. If it holds, the bid is real. This is the only technical level that matters for the next several weeks.
$TSLA Downtrend Line
Watch for a clean break and close above it. That is your confirmation that the merger trade has legs beyond one day of excitement.
$MU Earnings — June 24
Goldman raised concerns about long-term agreement visibility. But $40B is already locked. Unless corporations are breaking agreements, the bear case is limited. Watch the reaction to guidance more than the beat.
Space ETF Rebalancing
$UFO and $NASA need to complete their repositioning before $RKLB and $ASTS stabilize. Until the rebalancing is done, the selling pressure continues regardless of fundamentals.
The Bottom Line
The $SPCX IPO was the most chaotic event this market has seen in months. It created forced selling in space names, a structural short in private company wrappers, a merger trade in $TSLA, and a distraction that caused most traders to completely miss semiconductors having one of their best days of the year.
The cycle in semis is not over. The equipment makers are just now hitting highs. The memory names are earning more in one quarter than they used to earn in an entire year. And the buildout of the infrastructure that requires all of it is accelerating — not slowing.
Stop watching the rocket ship. Watch what the money does when the excitement fades.
The full breakdown — including the Tesla merger thesis, the $SPCX VWAP levels, the $DXYZ and $VCX structural short setup, and the semicap signal most traders are missing — is on YouTube now.
Thank you, very useful info!
This is a really well done, high alpha, post. Thank you for making it available to everyone.