CPI Release
CPI is out at 8:30 AM.
Here are the key numbers you need to know. The month-over-month consensus is 0.3%. Use this as your guide once the number is released.
Anything below 0.3% will be bullish and anything above will be bearish.
Market Reaction
Per JP Morgan’s CPI breakdown, this is what you can expect based on the CPI results:
>0.4%: S&P drops 0.75% - 1.5%
0.35% - 0.4%: S&P drops 0.25% - 0.5%
0.3%-0.35%: S&P rises 0.25%-0.75%
0.25%-0.3%: S&P rises 0.5%-1%
<0.25%: S&P rises .75%-1.25%
One thing to note is the timing of this release. If we were ever going to see a revision of CPI or for them to release a number far worse than expected, it would be today.
With the current administration on the way out, if they have any revisions to make, it is likely they will do it here, which adds some risk.
Watch this video for the stocks I am trading depending on the CPI outcomes: