📈 CPI RELEASE 8:30 AM

Here's what you need to know.

CPI is Critical This Month

CPI comes out at 8:30 AM today and is a very important number for the market.

It can either provide an impetus for us to see a relief rally, or it can cause us to sell-off further.

This month is especially important because we will begin to see the effects of tariffs on inflation, giving investors an idea of what they can expect from tariffs moving forward.

Above are the numbers to use as a guide, specifically comparing the actual results to consensus. Anything above consensus will be interpreted as bearish to the market.

Keep in mind that estimates out of investment banks right now are all over the place - there is little consensus on how these numbers will come in.

CPI Scenarios

Use these scenarios as a guide for how the market will react based on the CPI reading.

This note is from JP Morgan - you can see that they think it is most likely that we come in between 0.24% and 0.28% on the month-over-month number.

If this were the case, it would put the SPX reaction between -0.5% to +1%.

For more research on CPI and where it might come in so you have the upper hand going into the number, watch this video: