📈 Five Setups I'm Watching This Week

Here's what you need to know before you trade this week.

The 5 Setups I’m Watching This Week (IGV, BTC, Silver + 2 Bonus “Tell” Charts)

If you’re trying to trade this tape without watching software, you’re missing the whole story.

This week isn’t about whether the S&P is “crashing” — it isn’t. It’s about whether the de-leveraging cascade is done, and whether software ($IGV) can stabilize enough to stop acting like an anchor on the NASDAQ.

Below are the 5 setups I’m watching, the levels that matter, and the framework I’m using to separate a bounce from a bottom.

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The Week in One Sentence

Silver bounced, Bitcoin is trying to base, and software is imploding — and those three moves are more connected than most people realize.

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Market Recap (What Actually Happened)

✅ $SPY: still range-bound, not breaking down
🟡 $NDX: “struggling”… but not down much considering the pressure
🥈 Silver futures: bounced ~$10 off the lows (important — this reduces margin stress)
🟠 Bitcoin: potential bottom or another leg lower
🔻 Software ($IGV): the big one — a full-on cascade

Key takeaway: We saw a correlated unwind:
sell silver → sell crypto → sell software
That’s one big “risk-on, cross-collateralized” trade getting unwound.

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Why Software Matters More Than You Think

Software is roughly ~20% of the NASDAQ.

So if $IGV keeps collapsing, the NASDAQ has to fight with a weight tied to its ankle.
If $IGV stabilizes — even if it just stops going down — the NASDAQ suddenly has room to breathe.

That’s the entire game this week.

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The 5 Setups

1) $IGV — “Puke Zone” Bounce Watch

This is the centerpiece.

The setup is not “software is magically fine.”
The setup is reflexivity: the pendulum often swings too far, then snaps back.

What I’m watching

• 📉 4H RSI hit ~10 (extreme / rare territory)

• 🧱 200-week moving average is the big line in the sand

• ⚠️ If price starts living over/under/over/under the 200W, you can get a year-long chop (think 2022 → 2023 style grind)

Levels / zones

• 🎯 First bounce zone: ~$86–87

• 🎯 If it stabilizes and builds: ~$97 becomes a real magnet

Translation: I’m treating this as a bounce setup first, not a “new bull trend” call.

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2) Bitcoin — RSI Bounce + Fib “Story Map”

Bitcoin is washed-out enough to bounce, but still fragile enough to break again.

What I’m watching

• 🟠 RSI near ~12 (historically “bounce/bottom” territory)

• 🧩 The 50% retrace is acting like a demarcation line (seller → buyer flip zone)

• 🧱 Retrace ladder that BTC has respected Fibonacci levels:

  • ➡️ 0.382

  • ➡️ 0.618

  • ➡️ 0.786

The big risk

• 🧨 If BTC loses the 60 handle, odds increase for a deeper drawdown (the “5-handle” scenario)

Translation: BTC can absolutely bounce. But if it can’t reclaim levels quickly, it becomes a “bounce to sell” instead of a durable base.

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3) Silver — Stabilization = Margin Pressure Relief

Silver’s bounce matters more than the bounce itself.

Why? Because silver was a major source of the leverage shock.

What I’m watching

• 🥈 Bounce of ~$10 off weekly lows

• ✅ Silver held better than IGV/BTC during the cascade

Why this matters

If silver stabilizes, the market stops getting hit with the same intensity of:

• 📞 margin calls

• 🔥 forced liquidation

• 🧊 “sell what you can, not what you want” flows

Translation: Silver doesn’t need to rip — it just needs to stop being a wrecking ball.

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4) $MSTR — Washed-Out Reversal Watch (Tactical Only)

Sentiment got extreme (“MSTR to zero” crowd).
Then the expected catastrophic headline didn’t arrive — which is often when reflex rallies happen.

What I’m watching

• 🧠 “pain may be behind it” unless BTC rolls over again

• 🟢 On intraday charts: reclaiming short MAs (3/5/8 on 15m per the transcript) can trigger momentum flips

Key idea

This is still technically damaged — treat it like:

• ✅ bounce candidate

• ❌ not a clean long-term uptrend (yet)

Translation: If BTC bounces and holds, MSTR can snap hard. If BTC breaks, MSTR is the first to pay the bill.

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5) $PLTR — IGV’s “Beta Leader” if the Bounce Happens

This one is the “tell” inside the wreckage.

Technically, the chart is damaged:

• 🧩 Head & shoulders break (neckline broke)

But if IGV bounces, flows tend to chase the “best house in a bad neighborhood.”

Why it stays on my radar

• 🚀 Among major IGV constituents, it’s one of the strongest growth stories (per the transcript framework)

• 💡 If IGV stabilizes, the rebound money often goes where growth + narrative are strongest

Translation: If IGV bounces, PLTR is one of the first names I expect to move with velocity.

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The Macro Thread That Ties It Together

Here’s the chain reaction I’m watching for:

🥈 Silver stabilizes → fewer margin calls → less forced selling
🟠 BTC stabilizes → crypto stops “bleeding collateral”
🔻 IGV stabilizes → NASDAQ loses its biggest anchor (~20%)
📈 NDX can break out of the range even without new bullish catalysts, simply from pressure dissipating

This is why I keep repeating it:

You don’t need software to lead — you just need it to stop imploding.

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How I’m Approaching It

I’m not trying to “call the bottom” with certainty.

I’m treating this as:

• ✅ bounce first

• ✅ confirm stabilization

• ✅ then scale into the strongest setups

• ❌ avoid catching falling knives with full size

If fundamentals keep deteriorating, the bounce can fail fast.
But if forced selling is done, the snapback can be violent.

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What I’m Watching This Week (Simple Checklist)

• ✅ Does $IGV hold the 200-week and stop chopping lower?

• ✅ Does BTC hold key levels and avoid losing the “60 handle”?

• ✅ Does silver stay bid enough to reduce leverage stress?

• ✅ Do “beta leaders” (like PLTR) start reacting positively on stabilization?

If yes, the range can resolve higher.

If no, we’re not done.

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Full Video

I break down the correlation trade (IGV vs BTC vs silver), the IGV 200-week line, and the bounce vs bottom framework in the full video. 🎥