📈 GDP in Trouble?

The Atlanta Fed said this...

Stock Market Drops

Yesterday, despite a gap up to open the market, we sold off significantly.

Once again, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 2% and the NASDAQ dropped 2.2%. Both indexes now have bearish engulfing candles on their daily charts, which is obviously not what you want to see.

Tariffs are Officially On

While this wasn’t necessarily breaking news, we got confirmation from President Trump that 25% tariffs on both Mexico and Canada will go into effect today.

Last time we were near the tariff start date, a resolution was agreed to that pushed the start date back. That did not happen this time and the tariffs are moving forward.

Here you can see that the Mexico ETF was met by straight selling after a gap up. Specifically once Trump spoke about the tariffs, the sell-off gained steam.

Canada’s ETF saw the same pattern of a gap up met by significant selling pressure.

Regardless of how you feel about the tariffs, they will lead to GDP dropping which will negatively impact the stock market.

GDP Forecast Causes Concern

Speaking of GDP, the Atlanta Fed released their estimate for 2025 Q1 GDP and it wasn’t pretty.

They estimated that GDP would drop to -2.83%, which added to the panic that led to the market selling down all day yesterday.

Their estimate is absolutely not the absolute truth on what may happen, however when estimates are taken down in this manner, you need to pay attention.

I walk through how I am interpreting this data and weaving it into my trading strategy in this video: