📈Higher Inflation...Watch this level
PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. It is a measure of the total spending by individuals on goods and services. It is used by economists to measure the overall health of the economy. It is the number one metric Jerome Powell watches to make decisions on interest rates. Friday’s PCE data was not only higher than the estimate but also higher than the last actual reading.
PCE (year-over-year) Jan. 5.4.% reported 5.3% estimate 5.3% last month reading
Core PCE (year-over-year) Jan. 4.7% reported 4.4% estimate 4.6% last month reading
The SP500 sold off on Friday on the news but closed over its opening price. That said the SP500 has not been able to close above the 4160 level this year. The last three weekly attempts failed. Now 3950 has become support. This puts us squarely on the lower trend line. While the holding of this key level is good, it has become critical.
There are several reasons why if the SP500 breaks it might be muted or a buying opportunity. Right now we have one of the largest shifts in stock ownership in years. I explain in detail in the first 5 minutes of this video.
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Wishing Everyone Massive Success in 2023 🍾