📈 INTEREST RATE DECISION 2PM

Make sure you prepare for this.

Interest Rate Decision

The Fed will make a decision on interest rates at 2PM today.

This will 100% move the markets along with the Fed press conference at 2:30 PM where we will hear Powell speak.

Watching for the way he talks to interest rates and his thoughts on the persistency of inflation/timetable for rate cuts will be crucial.

Interest Rate Probabilities

Note that we are not expecting cuts at this meeting - we have a 98.4% chance that rates will be unchanged.

Previously the probabilities were showing that the first cut coming in September was most likely. After yesterday’s economic data, that has shifted to November.

November shows a 42.1% chance of a 25 point cut and a 14.4% chance of a 50 point cut.

Again, listen for how Powell discusses interest rates. Any sign that he is unsure we will still have cuts in 2024 will cause a sell-off.

I dive deeper into what you need to be aware of in today’s Fed meeting and interest rate decision here: