We have had one of the largest percentage gains of the last 50 years over the past two weeks. Most notably were the pandemic, the financial crisis and the dot com bust. It’s important to note that while this ranks as one of the top 10 largest gains, it’s not without pullbacks. The market has been driven by massive outflows of bonds and bond funds. This money is finding a home in equities. If you look at the utilities index you can see we are at all time highs. Large mega cap tech stocks have been on a tear not seen in years with AAPL having virtually no down days for over two weeks. It is estimated that over $500 billion dollars has come out of the bond markets and flown into equities and various other alternative assets as investors are concerned about rate hikes and inflation. Most notably was the sell off in the 10 year treasury which topped out at 2.5% and sitting currently at 2.35%. It is not a coincidence that the indexes stopped going up as the bond market rallied. We need to watch the yield. Should bonds rally more it can lead to more selling in the indexes. Today was the first day we saw this reversal. It is also the first day the VIX , volatility index made a higher high. Watch for a reading and close over 20. This could lead to more selling of equities. Tomorrow we have the PCE , which the Fed uses as a guide for inflation. We also have Jobless claims at 8:30 am. Both will be critical pieces of information. Technically SPY held major support bolstered by Energy. The QQQ did not hold the 200 day moving average and close below it. This is troubling as this is a lower high. Also the IWM gave back its entire gain from yesterday and then some. Focus on how we respond to the economic data tomorrow morning. Also there is a looming battle in the energy markets with Putin refusing payment in anything but Rubles. He has given the EU till April 1st to come up with a solution. Any more disruption of oil supply can send prices even higher. If you are interested in learning more about the Energy market , the vix and how they are correlated to the indexes and various sectors, watch the video below. There are also short and long ideas. Note the key levels and side notes on the indexes and graphs below. There is a lot to unpack. Let’s get to it!
Let’s Look at our Indexes
Let’s Look at our Stocks
👈Subscribe and turn on notifications. There is a new daily video after the market Monday through Thursday! It’s called the Top 5 in 5. It consists of the best five ideas for the next day and I condense it into 5 minutes. It’s loaded with actionable ideas. It’s worth your time. It is hyper specific and actionable. Tonight’s includes Longs and Shorts with entries and stops marked. When you subscribe turn on ALL notifications so you are notified of the daily Premarket live shows ,Top 10 Weekly Buy List and educational videos. Also, Once subscribed you will receive private content on YouTube make sure all notifications are turned on so you receive it. The video below is the Top 5 from tonight and focused on actionable ideas based upon the indexes and earnings tonight. Pay close attention to what is said about the 10 year, the energy sector , the semiconductor index and how its all connected to the SPY and QQQ.
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