Tech is Winning, Consumers Are Cracking, and the Fed is Cornered
What you need to know before you trade this week.
Tech is Winning, Consumers Are Cracking, and the Fed is Cornered
June 15, 2025
Welcome to your tactical breakdown for the week. As always, we’re connecting the macro, the fundamentals, and the technicals — because if you ignore any of them, you’ll get run over.
Last week offered one of the clearest divergences in recent memory:
✅ Oracle soared on AI strength
❌ Consumer names like $XLY, $CVNA, $LULU fell apart
🟡 Jobless claims hit a 3-year high — and nobody's pricing it in
Let’s get into the setups, the themes, and how we’re positioning.
📌 Setup #1: $ORCL – Post-Earnings Opportunity
Oracle just gave us one of the most powerful earnings signals in months:
🔹 Net new RPO growth at all-time highs
🔹 Multi-cloud DB revenue +115% QoQ
🔹 Autonomous DB adoption surging
Institutions had to reprice the stock fast — and many were caught offside.
📈 Actionable Levels:
Watching for a breakout above $215 or a pullback near $200 to reload.
This is a classic case of fundamental acceleration → technical follow-through.
🏦 Setup #2: Fed Minutes & Rate Cut Path
The Fed releases minutes this Thursday, but the real macro signal?
Not CPI. Not PPI. Continuing claims — and they just hit a 3-year high.
🔹 CME FedWatch: 94.8% odds of a rate cut by December
🔹 23% odds of a cut by July
🔹 2–3 cuts now priced in for 2025
Watch $TLT and $XLF. The bond market is forcing the Fed’s hand.
💡 Setup #3: Consumer Breakdown ($XLY, $CVNA)
This is where cracks are forming.
🔻 $CVNA: Down ~50 points from recent highs
🔻 $LULU & $AEO: Getting smoked after earnings
⚠️ Consumer credit delinquencies rising (GFC levels)
⚠️ Tariff risk + job losses = pain for discretionary names
Expect weakness to continue unless macro shifts materially.
🧠 Macro Themes to Watch
These themes are shaping the flow of capital:
🤖 AI demand is still early — most enterprise adoption is single-digit
🚀 Semis are exploding: $AVGO, $MU, $ASML, $TXN all showing strength
💥 Consumer stocks diverging from tech — an important tell
📉 The dollar isn’t rallying — even with war, tariffs, and Middle East risk
📈 XLK/SPY relative breakout confirms tech leadership
📊 Sector Rotation + Relative Strength
Use XLK/SPY charts to see where the money is flowing. Relative charts tell the truth — even when the market chops. And right now:
Tech is leading
Consumer discretionary is lagging
Long-duration names are gaining again as rate cut odds climb
We may be in for a rangebound chop in SPY, but under the hood, there’s opportunity.
🎥 Watch the Full Video
In this week’s full breakdown, I go deeper on:
My live $ORCL trade (with timestamps + volume read)
Macro context behind jobless claims and rate cut odds
2 bonus setups not posted anywhere else