The next winners of 2023 will be different than the 2020 boom. 2022 was one of the worst years of the stock market on record. We are below the 200 daily simple moving average for the SP500 for one of the longest times in history. This leads us to took at the sectors that lead coming out of similar situations. the closest situation we have to the technology boom bust is 2000.
If we look at sectors that rallied after the 2000 bear market we see a pattern of technology underperformance and significant outperformance in hard assets such as Energy and Basic materials. Financials also did well.
See the Legend and the outperformance over the SPX which was -1.9% during the same 2 year period.
If we look at the beginning of the recent rally in 2023 starting from 2H 2022we can see several similarities. Energy , basic material and financials are leading and technology is underperforming.
See the legend and the outperformance while the SPX +4.54%
If we understand the why we can understand where we are going. As the great Gretzky says “ I skate to were the puck is going not where it has been”. Look for tomorrow’s newsletter where I will go over specific stocks that are set to outperform.
In the meantime, watch his weeks video. I explain why inflation has clearly peaked ,what that means for the stock market in general as well as a handful of stocks ideas and why the homebuilder stocks are the most misunderstood sector right now.
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Wishing Everyone Massive Success in 2023 🍾
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