CPI 8:30 AM
CPI is about to come out and it will move the markets violently depending on the numbers.
This is something you need to watch and I will share the numbers we are looking for and what the expected market reaction should be.
CPI Expectations
Below you can see consensus expectations as well as previous results:
Specifically you should focus on Core Inflation Rate YoY.
If you see the actual number come in at 4.0 or above, the markets are going to sell off.
This will spark fear that inflation is back and institutions/algos will sell. Pay really close attention to that number.
Another thing I would watch is the FedWatch tool that signals the likelihood of rate cuts. This CPI reading will change those likelihoods and can give you a picture of why the market is acting the way it is.
Right now we are expected to see a first rate cut in June but this could absolutely change based on CPI.
Watch yesterdayโs video for my full thoughts on CPI and what to be watching out for: