📈 This is When Rate Cuts are Coming...

This data will give you an edge.

Rate Cuts

Investors have been extremely focused on figuring out when rate cuts will come and how many rate cuts we will see in 2024.

It has been a moving target - originally investors thought there would be three cuts in 2024, possibly as soon as June or July. That ship has sailed.

In FOMC last week, the Dot Plot showed that we will likely see one rate cut this year.

Goldman Sachs Prediction

GS released information recently giving their prediction on rate cuts and when we will see them.

What they are saying is that as long as we see inflation data come in in-line, then it is fair to expect a rate cut in September.

Before we get there, we have three rounds of CPI and PCE. This data will tell the story of whether we are going to see cuts in September or not.

Using multiple sources, we can compare this perspective with CME’s FedWatch tool.

This tells a similar story. It has us at over a 60% chance to see a rate cut in September.

If we do get a cut, what might happen?

This data shows historical performance after rate cuts. You can see that it is a mixed bag.

Personally I believe we are more similar to 1995/1998 in our current context, but it is important to note that the market does not always go up after a rate cut.

Watch this video for more analysis of the macroeconomy and what it means for day-to-day trading.