📈 Weekly Market Outlook (UPDATED)
What you need to know before you trade this week.
📬 Weekly Market Outlook: Smart Money Exits, Big Earnings Ahead, and US Steel Risk
Welcome to your tactical breakdown for the trading week. Last week delivered serious market signals—breadth is deteriorating, key leadership stocks are faltering, and we’re heading into one of the most pivotal earnings weeks of the quarter.
In this issue:
NVDA earnings setup
Smart money vs dumb money divergence
Market breadth breakdown
The real risk behind the US Steel deal
Sector rotations and setup ideas
Let’s get to it.
🔍 Last Week Recap
✅ SPY failed major trendline resistance and rolled over after a weak backtest. The rejection was fast and aggressive.
❌ Tech leaders like $NVDA and $TSLA are underperforming just ahead of earnings — a bad signal for sentiment.
🟡 Retail confidence is spiking while institutions exit. This is a classic late-cycle divergence.
Breadth is falling off a cliff. Just 45% of $SPX stocks are above their 200DMA — down from 55% in a matter of days. Not catastrophic yet, but it needs to reverse soon.
⚠️ Setup 1: $NVDA Earnings (Wednesday)
All eyes are on $NVDA this week. Expectations are high — maybe too high.
Base forming near $130, but struggling to break $136.40 (REVISION)
RSI turning higher, but still fragile
Sympathy trades: $AMD, $AVGO
If NVDA pops on earnings, we could see a short-term rally in semis. If it fades, that could confirm a larger rollover in tech. Either way, this is a market-moving event.
🏦 Setup 2: Fed Minutes + Rate Watch (Thursday)
We’ll get the latest Fed minutes on Thursday, and markets are at a crossroads:
$TLT is hovering at support — a break could spike yields
$XLF is sitting on an inflection point
The dollar dropped back below 100 — boosting commodities
If the Fed sounds hawkish, expect weakness in growth. If they’re dovish, it may spark a risk-on move in oversold names.
⚡ Setup 3: $TSLA Oversold Bounce Watch
Tesla’s been hammered, but it’s holding weekly support near $332.90 (REVISION)
Needs to reclaim $349.80 with volume to spark a reversal (REVISION)
Leadership is gone, but a tradeable bounce could emerge
Not the strongest setup yet — but worth watching.
🧠 Key Macro Themes This Week
Smart Money / Dumb Money Spread:
Institutions are exiting quietly while retail confidence spikes. This has historically marked short-term tops and medium-term bottoms.Commodities Rotating Back Up:
Copper, lumber, and uranium are catching a bid. This suggests a shift back to hard assets as the dollar weakens.Market Breadth Breakdown:
Only 45% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200DMA. This dropped fast — and that’s rare. When this happens, it usually takes time to rebuild risk appetite.
🇺🇸 The US Steel Wild Card
One of the most underappreciated macro risks right now?
The U.S. Steel–Nippon Steel deal.
Language around the deal shifted from “merger” to “partnership,” likely to avoid political backlash. But here’s the problem:
If Japan gains control of union jobs and steel production, it undermines the entire America First manufacturing narrative.
With tariffs heating up again and Trump’s May 30 visit planned, this could turn into a political firestorm.
The spread on $X between deal price and stock price is razor thin — implying minimal risk. I’m short via puts.
This isn’t priced in. If lawmakers push back, this could unwind fast.
📊 Breadth, Divergence & Sentiment Charts
New lows outpacing new highs = hidden positive divergence forming
Retail vs. institutional confidence now at unsustainable levels
Watch for reversal signals if sentiment extremes hold into next week
These conditions often mark pivot zones — but not without volatility.
📈 Sector Rotation Playbook
Based on recent breadth + historical patterns:
Short-term (0–30 days): Energy tends to lead post-bounce setups
Medium-term (3–6 months): Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech gain traction
XLY tends to outperform 12 months after key sentiment resets
We may already be seeing the start of that rotation.
🎥 Full Video Breakdown
Want the full technical breakdown, plus two bonus trade setups I didn’t cover here?