📈 What You Need to Know About CPI and FOMC
Use this as a cheat sheet for today.
CPI Key Information
Here is what you need to focus on when CPI data is released:
We are looking at Core CPI MoM. Last month came in at 0.3% and we are expecting to see 0.3% again.
Here are the expected moves based on how this number comes in. Use this for trading once the data is released:
So essentially we are looking at stock market gains if the number comes in below 0.3%.
Take note of the fact that there is a stronger chance that we come in between 0.2% and 0.3% vs. 0.3% and 0.4%.
FOMC
There is very little chance that interest rates will be cut tomorrow. Nobody is expecting cuts, so this will not be bearish for the market.
The important things to watch are two-fold:
Dot Plot - the dot plot shows where each Fed member thinks interest rates will be in the future. Previously the dot plot has shown three cuts. If it shows less than that, it could be a reason for the market to sell off.
Powell Speech - Powell’s speech will be very important tomorrow. Because rates are not being cut at this meeting, his language around future cuts and expectations of when that may be coming will be critical. I recommend listening to what he is saying to gain insight into how you should be trading the market going forward.
Watch tonight’s video for a recap of the data coming tomorrow and what stocks I am watching: