Not sure about next week, but months ahead looking bearish. The market has been slow to realize rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. Second, the justification for rate cuts by the Fed would amount to public announcement that we are officially in recession. Hence, I would rate the statistical probability of committing political suicide during an election year as HIGHLY unlikely. Conclusion, the market has a long way to go (down) before this realization has been fully priced in.(i.e. overdue for meaningful correction) Lastly, the larger time-frame cyclical TA i use for S&P500 weighs heavily on a 20 year Fib Channel showing price just rejected off a "multi-decade" upper trendline.
Great analysis, Arete! I digested the macro data release on Friday as ominously bad. However, i saw the markets irrational reaction at key levels, so I went long anyways, booked some quick profits and got out. The underlying fundaments gave me the conviction to play it safe, preserve capital. Hence, I avoided the temptation to stay in trades that just didn't make sense. I have learned to apply Macro, Fundamentals to my trading style from you, Arete. Tango Mike!
Not sure about next week, but months ahead looking bearish. The market has been slow to realize rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. Second, the justification for rate cuts by the Fed would amount to public announcement that we are officially in recession. Hence, I would rate the statistical probability of committing political suicide during an election year as HIGHLY unlikely. Conclusion, the market has a long way to go (down) before this realization has been fully priced in.(i.e. overdue for meaningful correction) Lastly, the larger time-frame cyclical TA i use for S&P500 weighs heavily on a 20 year Fib Channel showing price just rejected off a "multi-decade" upper trendline.
Great analysis, Arete! I digested the macro data release on Friday as ominously bad. However, i saw the markets irrational reaction at key levels, so I went long anyways, booked some quick profits and got out. The underlying fundaments gave me the conviction to play it safe, preserve capital. Hence, I avoided the temptation to stay in trades that just didn't make sense. I have learned to apply Macro, Fundamentals to my trading style from you, Arete. Tango Mike!